Are tumor size changes predictive of survival for checkpoint blockade based immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma?

Table 3 Sensitivity and positive predictive value with different tumor size change cut-offs

Survive Additional t (years) from Week 12	+ 20%		−10%		−30%
Survive Additional t (years) from Week 12	Sensitivity	PPV	Sensitivity^a	PPV^b	Sensitivity	PPV
1	92.7%	82.6%	65.4%	87.1%	48.6%	91.0%
2	93.8%	66.2%	71.2%	75.6%	55.3%	82.8%
3	94.9%	57.6%	76.0%	69.1%	60.8%	77.7%

^aSensitivity: Prob (tumor size change “<= −10%” at Week 12 given surviving additional t years)
^bPositive Predictive Value (PPV): Prob(survive additional t years given tumor size change “<= − 10%” at Week 12)